Sharif exiled to Saudia -- Again

In a dramatic turn of events in the Pakistan’s volatile political scene, Pakistan’s Military government lead by General Musharraf, resorted to power tactics to throw Nawaz Sharif, the last democratically elected Premier into his second exile, back to Saudi Arabia. The government/ Musharraf argues that there was a deal brokered by Saudi Government/ Mr. Hariri that Binds Mr. Sharif from a- Returning to Pakistan for 10 years, b- Taking part in Pakistani Politics for ten years, c- getting out of Saudi Arabia for 10 years.

The current Military backed government maintains that Nawaz Sharif is not keeping his end of the bargain that has been propagated as a DEAL that was brokered while Mr. Sharif was in jail. How much of an option did he have as a captive is not discussed in the media a whole lot.

The matters were complicated when the Supreme Court of Pakistan decided to intervene and pass a verdict allowing Mr. Sharif to come back to the country. In the process the highest court of the country dismissed the document shown by the Attorney General as ‘Not a binding agreement’ since it did not have the signatures of both parties involved.

AFP reported on his second exile, following the events unfolding at Islamabad Airport,

“In a dramatic showdown at Islamabad airport, the 57-year-old Sharif refused to hand over his passport as he came home from seven years abroad, sparking an immediate confrontation and prompting police to board his plane.
The two-time premier, ousted by close US ally Musharraf in a bloodless 1999 coup, was then arrested on corruption charges and put on a plane to the Saudi city of Jeddah four hours after he touched down.”
The PML(N) workers still consider this an ongoing struggles and all is not lost just yet in their minds. According to AFP’s report,

“Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party condemned his deportation and filed a legal challenge in the Supreme Court, saying the government was in contempt of court.
"I believe that the Saudi government has also interfered in Pakistan's internal affairs and shown disrespect to the constitution and the Supreme Court," party spokesman Siddique-ul Farooq told AFP.”

Most of the west, still sees Pakistan through the lens of Terrorism and Militancy, had their own opinion about Sharif’s second exile. For instant, Washington Post chose to run Pakistan Military’s skirmishes with the Militants in NWFP rather than the unfolding political chaos. Most of the western claims do not truly line up with their argument of supporting democracy and restoring the rights of the people, there were some statements made that seemed to be helping Sharif’s quest for returning to Pakistan. For instance EU issued a statement about adhering to the law, avoiding direct mention of Supreme Court.

On the other hand Benazir seems to be getting her way by way of US brokered deal that will see her become the new Prime Minister. How true does that statement remains, it still needs to be seen. For now she seems on course to come back and win the elections since her main Rival – Sharif- has been ousted by force once again.

"Mrs Bhutto has decided to travel to Pakistan," Bhutto's spokesman Wajid Hassan told Reuters Television in an interview. "She has planned it next month, probably. She will announce it on Sept. 14 as to the date of her arrival in Pakistan."
"She has got to go back and lead the party into the elections, to campaign for the party in the elections," Bhutto's spokesman said.
"I'm sure that there will be no compromise on it. She will go back and she will compete for the party and she will definitely win the elections."

As with all political nautanki, there sure seems to be more twist in this saga as there are too many players still on the table.

Political game on a Chess table

As Musharraf entered into talks with Benazir thinking her involvement will keep the stronger player, Nawaz, out of Power and out of Pakistan, the emboldened Supreme Court Justice Iftikhar chaudhry slammed a verdict that might make him think that he entered into negotiations with the wrong party. With the twist of fate, it seems that all of a sudden there are far more players on the political chess board than Musharraf would ever have imagined before March 9th. Judiciary, empowered by Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, Media empowered by their coverage of Judicial strikes and events surrounding it which Musharraf tried to stop by passing a bill against it, Benazir whom Musharraf engaged into negotiations before the fall of events, Ameica -- Of course, due to war on terror, the hardliner Muslim right that Musharraf managed to infuriate by pressing over Red Mosque issue which resulted in many suicide bombings soon after, and Nawaz Sharif who Musharraf thought was done and dusted, is soon to come back into the political scene. With so many players vying for power it would test Musharraf's political wisdom he's conjured up in the last 8 years, to all ends.

Ever since Musharraf came into power he made it clear that there is no room for the two ex-prime ministers that have each held power twice in the country. He has been pretty adamant on not cutting them any concessions whatsoever the circumstances may be. As fate has it or should I say 'the hand of God' the current political situation in Pakistan has forced him to reconsider his options. Bitter enemies are once again being brought together albeit their dislike. There are all sorts of news and analysis in the media as to which direction the current scenario of Pakistan's political future will take .

Reuters - Allies of Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf have raised objections to a power-sharing deal he is negotiating with former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, casting fresh doubt on the future of the embattled president. But many members of Musharraf's ruling Pakistan Muslim League (PML) are alarmed at the prospect of their old rival Bhutto returning from eight years of exile to take power from them. PML president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain said he had conveyed his reservations about parts of the proposed deal to Musharraf.

"We told him that there are certain things which are harmful for the country and the nation and they should be asked to review them," Hussain told Reuters on Friday, referring to Bhutto and her party and some of the demands they have been making.
Bhutto, who has been prime minister twice, wants the lifting of a ban on a person serving a third term. She also wants the president stripped of the power to dismiss governments, but Hussain said his party opposed those demands.

The New York Times analyzes the turmoil with a heading "Pakistan's Bhutto gambles on Musharraf", alleging her 'Deal' is due to the fact that she wants to come back having dropped all the corruption charges against her.

NYT: Exiled former leader Benazir Bhutto is gambling her future on a power-sharing deal with President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, hoping to revive a political dynasty.
Bhutto is urging Musharraf to step down as military chief and drop corruption charges so she can come home and compete in parliamentary elections due by January. In return, the U.S.-allied Musharraf gets to stay on for another five years as a powerful civilian president.
"For the first time in the history of Pakistan, from one end to the other end of Pakistan, there's complete unanimity: No more dictatorship," said Ghulam Mustafa Khar, a senior politician who has broken with Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party over her talks with Musharraf. "Now, Benazir stands up and says, 'Stay, Musharraf, stay!' ... That is something which is a nightmare for the people of Pakistan," he said.
Bhutto and Musharraf also argue that joining forces will strengthen Pakistan's efforts to combat extremism and prevent the kind of political chaos that could prompt another burst of martial law. "I am trying to convince (party colleagues) that the international community and the armed forces have confidence in Musharraf, and therefore we need to work out a solution" with him, she told The Washington Post recently.
Khar was a close colleague of her father, party founder Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, who was hanged on murder charges in 1979 after his ouster in an earlier military coup. By entering talks with Musharraf, Bhutto has offended the party's "long history of struggle against dictatorship," Khar said. Khar accused her of betraying her party's values by reaching out to a man who toppled Pakistan's last civilian government and has lost public support at home and abroad for recently trying to fire the country's top judge. "This is one thing that I have not even visualized or dreamt," he said.
If Bhutto fights only for her own immunity from prosecution, she will lose further credibility, said political columnist Ayaz Amir. But if she gets Musharraf out of his army post, she can claim to have broken a political deadlock. "Then the People's Party will go to town and say, 'Look here, no one else could do this, and we've done it ... We won this great victory for democracy,'" said Amir, a former lawmaker in Sharif's party now writing for the Dawn newspaper.
Sharif, poised to profit from any hiccups, says Bhutto has committed a "gross violation" of an agreement with him and other opposition parties not to talk with Musharraf. But the embrace of an army discredited by eight years of military rule could see her lose the upcoming election, said Talat Masood, a former Pakistani army general turned political analyst. "As a pillar of anti-establishment, she has become the supporter of establishment. It's a big departure in ideological terms," he said. "The die-hard support that she had received from a certain class of people all along will be seriously impaired." Masood counted himself among Bhutto's well-wishers but worried that "she has lost touch with the people in these last few years that she has been away. It's the support of the people that's important. If you get that, you are in a much more advantageous position than even having the support of the uniform," he said.

Pakistan's politics will get to see more of the same old. In an interesting twist of turns it seems that both the heads of the strongest parties that Musharraf tried so hard to keep away for 8 years seem to be coming back, not exactly as he planned.

BBC analyzed that the government is keeping all it's options open after Sharif's announcement to come back on Sep 10th, before the holy Month of Ramadan, "Pakistan's government is keeping all options open after exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced plans to return next month, a minister says...Another former Prime Minister, Benazir Bhutto, is demanding a response before the weekend to her terms for a power-sharing deal with Gen Musharraf...On Thursday, the US reminded Gen Musharraf of his commitment to resign his army position before contesting elections. 'We expect him to honour that commitment," said a US spokesman'."

Muhammad Ali Durrani, the Information Minister, had a different say about the whole scenario. while speaking to BBC he said, "The government is keeping all options open on Nawaz Sharif's return, If he comes back, we will make a strategy."
That may also mean that government might consider negotiating with Sharif, since he still has quite a few well wishers in Mushrraf's own PML(Q), who'd rather align with Nawaz Sharif than Benazir.

Mr Sharif seems to be playing his legal and political position wisely. Let's not forget that pre-1998 coup, he was the only politician to have come into the office in Pakitan with clear majority. He announced his return a week after Pakistan Supreme court defied the government and ruled that being a citizen of Pakistan he has a legal right to go back to his home country.Government and independent think tanks say that Mr Sharif could still face jail if he returns.
Mr Sharif reiterated that he wants to "start a decisive struggle against dictatorship", and said that it would be unfortunate if Benazir made a deal with the General. "I disagree with Ms Bhutto's current policy of shaking hands with a dictator," he said.

Chronology of Current Events

9th March: Musharraf suspends Iftikhar Chaudhry ( Chief Justice) for "abuse of power". Lawyers start their protest which will go on for a couple of months to come.
April: Protests grow larger and violent with quite a few clashes with police.
12 May: Iftikhar Chaudhry arrives in Karachi for his pre-announced/ pre-planned visit which sparks clashes between rival political parties. 34 people die and images a broadcasted live on TV.
11 July: Stand off at Red Mosque picks up pace while the Chief Justice predicament is being played out. eventually on this date 102 people die when army decides to take action against alleged militants in the mosque. Opposition/Judiciary blames the government for trying to play 'kill bill' and taking the focus away from the Chief Justice issue.
July-Aug: Sharp rise in suicide attacks by pro-Taliban militants, the reasons are liked with the Red Mosque debacle.
20 July: Supreme Court reinstates chief justice in a historic decision.
9 Aug: Musharraf rejects emergency rule after a call from Condoleeza Rice, even though the media reports that it was imminent and decided by Musharraf in a meeting.
23 Aug: Supreme Court says exiled ex-PM Nawaz Sharif can return and dismisses the evidence provided by attorney General as a legal agreement since it was only signed by Nawaz and not by any 2nd party.

Benazir Bhutto, close to a DEAL with Musharraf

Benazir Bhutto had adamently stood for the principle that she would not return to pakistan under the Military rule. She has been one of the many strong political voices against the military rule. Recently there have been talks of her making a DEAL with the military dictator, General Musharraf. It seems that she seems as desperate to take on the power regardless of the fact if she has to cut a deal with the General as much as the General is desperate to cut a deal with a popular politician.

The political game seems to be getting hot with the fact that, thanks to Judiciary, the playing field has been somewhat leveled and a long forgotten player has been allowed to enter in Pakistan. Whether that actually happens or not still remains to be seen, because the Military ruler seems adament on returing the favour on not allowing a safe landing to Nawaz. Refusal of safe landing to the General was the precise reason which helped the General use his military muscle and depose the then democratically elected prime minister.

BBC: Former Pakistani PM Benazir Bhutto says she is close to reaching a deal to share power with President Musharraf.

The embattled military ruler is seeking support for presidential elections that could give him another five-year term. But he is under pressure to reach a deal with the opposition after several Supreme Court rulings went against him.

Ms Bhutto told the BBC that most issues had been resolved, but an agreement had not been finalised. She wants a clear statement he will resign as army chief. She also wants a pledge to remove legal obstacles currently preventing her from becoming prime minister for a third time, and the removal of corruption cases against her.

Ms Bhutto was speaking to the BBC's Urdu service after weeks of mounting speculation that a deal was being worked on.

"We are still negotiating. There are so many things we have agreed upon," she said. "But it's not been finalised so I can't go into details." She said she hoped General Musharraf would make a decision to stand down as head of the army "according to the wishes of the Pakistani people". "And the people of Pakistan want him to get rid of his uniform."

Earlier, Pakistan's railways minister, Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, told reporters the deal was "80% done". He said the crucial issue over Gen Musharraf's dual role as president and army chief had been resolved, but did not elaborate.

Until now Gen Musharraf has said he will abide by the constitution when it comes to the dual role. Some say this means he will take off the uniform before the end of the year, some say before presidential elections in autumn, reports the BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad. The crucial thing for Ms Bhutto is that he publicly announce his intentions because right now she is losing support by negotiating with the military ruler, our correspondent says.

Analysts say Ms Bhutto was alarmed by the Supreme Court's decision last week allowing the other exiled opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, to return to Pakistan, perhaps as early as next month. Mr Sharif has gained much support for opposing army rule and vowing to force President Musharraf out of office.

It is not clear whether the military leader can accept Ms Bhutto's demands. At the moment he has enough votes in parliament to win another five-year term. But there are growing defections from the ruling party and the emboldened Supreme Court might yet rule that his re-election from existing assemblies is unconstitutional.

BBC's Profile on Nawaz Sharif

BBC World's has a detailed profile over Nawaz Sharif's political history. It goes into details about the major players in Paksitan politics and the views of the analysts over what would it imply if he was to come back into Pakistan's politics.

BBC: Nawaz Sharif's recent re-emergence as one of the power players in Pakistani politics has surprised many. Fellow ex-Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has recently manoeuvred her way into an "unofficial" deal with President Musharraf.

Mr Sharif's party, on the other hand, has put together a new all opposition parties alliance ahead of the upcoming elections. This, along with his possible return, has caused many of his ex-party men, now part of Gen Musharraf's government, sleepless nights.

It is the latest extraordinary twist in the career of a man who was once Pakistan's most powerful politician. Before his dramatic overthrow in a military coup in 1999, Mr Sharif appeared to dominate the political landscape. He had convincing majorities in both houses of parliament, and exerted a powerful hold over all the country's major institutions - apart from the army. But when the army seized power, Mr Sharif was arrested, and eventually sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of hijacking and terrorism. He was also convicted of corruption and banned for life from political activities. But an alleged deal, reputedly brokered by the Saudi government, saved him and other family members from being put behind bars. Mr Sharif, along with 40 members of his family, was thus exiled to Saudi Arabia for a period of 10 years.

Nawaz Sharif was born into the family of a prominent Lahore industrialist in 1949. He made his mark in politics representing an urban constituency. He first came to national prominence when he was brought into the Punjab government during the early days of General Zia's martial law, serving as finance minister and then chief minister. Although he was never considered a particularly impressive political figure, he proved himself a competent administrator during his time as chief minister.

He first became prime minister in 1990, but was dismissed in 1993, clearing the way for the then opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, to form a government. After becoming prime minister again in 1997 with a comfortable majority, Mr Sharif brought about a series of constitutional changes. These were seen as part of an attempt to stifle any institutional opposition to his rule.

He controversially reversed a constitutional amendment which took away the president's powers to dismiss the prime minister. A power struggle with the judiciary also gripped the country after Mr Sharif fell out with the then Chief Justice, Sajjad Ali Shah. Mr Sharif faced possible disqualification from office after charges of contempt of court were brought against him, but these were eventually dismissed.

In 1998, he was confronted by another stand-off after a former army head said the army should formally have a say in the running of the government. Tensions with the army resurfaced in 1999 when the prime minister used his influence to withdraw Pakistani-backed forces from the Indian side of the Line of Control in Kashmir in 1999. The army has always been a highly powerful institution in Pakistan. Mr Sharif's overthrow by General Musharraf in a bloodless coup showed how dangerous it was for any politician to attempt to curtail its influence.

His removal from active politics and his subsequent imprisonment led to serious differences emerging within his Pakistan Muslim League (PML) party. These threatened to become an open split with a decision by some senior party members - led by Mr Sharif's wife - to join an opposition alliance against the military. The move - which would have meant joining forces with arch-rival Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party - was deeply controversial with some party members. The split became a reality soon after Mr Sharif was sent into exile.

Erstwhile party loyalists, led by veteran politician Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, announced support for Gen Musharraf. They also provided support during his controversial presidential referendum.

Before the 2002 general elections, these rebels formed the PML-Q (Quaid-e-Azam) with a strong pro-Musharraf stance. The PML-Q was elected to form the government in 2002 amongst allegations of widespread rigging and political manoeuvring. The party has continued to form the political backbone for the current military-led regime. But all that may well end with Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan. Analysts contend that Ms Bhutto and Mr Sharif continue to be the only populist politicians in the country.

But while the PML-Q fears Ms Bhutto's return, it is terrified by the thought of Nawaz Sharif coming back. Analysts say Mr Sharif's return would split the PML-Q and spell the end of the line for several politicians in the party.